The National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate at 18% per annum with a corridor of ±1 percentage point, reports Todayinfo.kz.
According to the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank, the base rate remained unchanged. This decision is explained by the still high inflationary pressure.
In March 2026, annual inflation slowed to 11% (in February – 11.7%). Food inflation decreased to 11.7%, non-food goods to 11.3%, and services inflation to 10.0%.
The slowdown in inflation was facilitated by tight monetary policy, stability of the tenge exchange rate, normalization of consumer demand, and anti-inflationary measures by the government. In addition, the moratorium on utility and fuel prices had an impact.
Monthly inflation also decreased, amounting to 0.6% in March (in February – 1.1%). However, the core inflation level still exceeds the target of 5%.
Inflation expectations of the population remain high at 14.6%. Market participants forecast inflation in 2026 at 10%.
External factors are also putting pressure. The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the rise in prices for energy, food, and fertilizers, increasing the risks of imported inflation.
In addition, the growth of regulated tariffs, tax changes, and quasi-fiscal policy may create additional inflationary pressure.
According to preliminary data, in the first quarter of 2026, Kazakhstan's economy grew by 3.0%. The growth was mainly driven by activity in construction, transport, manufacturing, and trade.
The National Bank stated that it will continue tight monetary conditions to maintain the current disinflationary trend. At the same time, if the trend of slowing inflation continues, the possibility of reducing the base rate may be considered in the future.
The next decision will be announced on June 5, 2026.
