Analysts at Halyk Finance, in their first-quarter macroeconomic report, predicted that by the end of 2026, the dollar will cost 540 tenge, oil will be $85, and inflation will be 10.5-11.5%, reports Todayinfo.
The authors note a slowdown in GDP growth due to decreased production in the oil and gas sector and the rejection of targeted transfers from the National Fund. The deterioration in mining results is largely due to the high base of the previous year, when oil production surged due to new capacities at Tengiz.
The second important factor is a significant reduction in revenues from the National Fund. The government abandoned targeted transfers, leaving only guaranteed ones. Total revenues nearly halved from 5.3 to 2.7 billion tenge, heavily impacting domestic demand.
Analysts caution against overestimating the slowdown in inflation and focus on the monthly indicator. It rose in January-February, followed by a decline in March, explained by the strengthening of the tenge and the freeze on gasoline prices and utility tariffs, which ended in late March.
“We also noted large volumes of currency supply on the exchange in the first quarter of 2026 from unknown sources, increasing uncertainty about the tenge exchange rate. According to our forecasts, the tenge exchange rate will settle at 540 tenge per dollar by the end of 2026 amid external economic risks and internal factors,” the report says.
In 2026, GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% in real terms, down from 6.5% in 2025. Analysts attribute the deterioration to lower oil production and exports, reduced transfers from the National Fund, and slower real income growth. However, the decline in oil production will be offset by a rise in its global price to an annual average of $85 per barrel.
