In the first quarter of 2026, Kazakhstan's economy entered a cooling phase. Declining oil production, weakening fiscal stimulus, and deteriorating real incomes of the population slowed growth, reports Todayinfo citing Halyk Finance.
According to experts, GDP growth in the first quarter on an annual basis was 3%, compared to 5.6% in the same period of 2025. A slowdown is observed in all major sectors except agriculture. This is mainly due to a significant decline in the mining industry, especially the oil and gas sector, which has a multiplicative effect on related industries. Real incomes of the population showed negative dynamics.
An additional factor is the reduction in fiscal stimulus. At the beginning of the year, a decrease in the use of National Fund funds weakened economic support, although a temporary increase in transfers was observed in March. The government plans to significantly increase the volume of quasi-fiscal stimulus through the Baiterek National Holding in 2026, aimed at concessional lending to businesses and expanding mortgages.
In the first quarter, annual inflation slowed to 11%, but monthly inflation accelerated in January and February, sharply declining in March. This was facilitated by the freezing of regulated tariffs and fuel prices, as well as the strengthening of the tenge. "The National Bank is pursuing a tight monetary policy. We forecast that, taking into account the weakening of the tenge and the re-increase in tariffs, inflation will be 10.5-11.5% by the end of 2026," experts say.
The tenge strengthened to 478.15 tenge per dollar by the end of the first quarter. This was driven by a high base rate, the cessation of currency purchases for the UAPF, mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by quasi-state companies, and an inflow of portfolio investments. However, experts expect the tenge to weaken to 540 tenge per dollar by the end of the year.
