Kazakhstan is experiencing a growing demographic imbalance: despite overall population growth, the share of children is declining while the number of elderly is rising rapidly. In recent years, the birth rate has dropped significantly, altering the structure of society, reports Todayinfo.
According to Energyprom.kz, the number of children under 14 stabilized and began to decline, from 5.9 million at the start of 2024 and 2025 to 5.8 million at the start of 2026. However, over the past decade, the figure still increased by 21.5%. Meanwhile, the number of citizens aged 65 and older grew from 1.2 million in 2016 to 2 million by early 2026, a rise of 59.6%.
The birth rate is also falling: in 2025, the total rate was 16.4 per thousand people, significantly lower than the 2021 level of 23.5. Over four years, the rate dropped by nearly a third. The lowest birth rates were recorded in North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and East Kazakhstan regions. Even in traditionally 'young' regions like Turkistan and Mangystau, the pace is slowing.
Experts note that population growth no longer compensates for structural changes: the share of elderly is increasing, the burden on the working-age population is growing, and future labor potential is shrinking. These processes align with global demographic transition trends and will continue to pressure the labor market, healthcare, and social system.
