National Bank keeps base rate at 18%

The National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate at 18% per annum with a corridor of ±1 percentage point, reports Todayinfo.kz news agency. According to the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank, the base rate remained unchanged. This decision is explained by the still high inflationary pressure. In March 2026, annual inflation slowed to 11% (in February – 11.7%). Food inflation decreased to 11.7%, non-food goods to 11.3%, and services inflation to 10.0%. The slowdown in inflation was driven by tight monetary policy, stability of the tenge exchange rate, normalization of consumer demand, and anti-inflationary measures by the Government. The moratorium on utility and fuel prices also contributed. Monthly inflation also declined, reaching 0.6% in March (February – 1.1%). However, core inflation remains above the 5% target. Inflation expectations of the population remain high at 14.6%. Market participants forecast inflation at 10% in 2026. External factors also exert pressure. The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects energy, food, and fertilizer prices, increasing imported inflation risks. Additionally, growth in regulated tariffs, tax changes, and quasi-fiscal policy may create additional inflationary pressure. According to preliminary data, Kazakhstan's economy grew by 3.0% in the first quarter of 2026. Growth was mainly driven by activity in construction, transport, manufacturing, and trade. The National Bank stated that it will continue tight monetary conditions to maintain the current disinflationary trend. At the same time, if the slowdown trend continues, a possible reduction of the base rate may be considered in the future. The next decision will be announced on June 5, 2026.