Oil prices rose 2% on Monday as US-Iran talks stalled and supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, exacerbating a global market deficit, reports Todayinfo news agency.
Brent crude futures rose $2.16 (2.05%) to $107.49 a barrel — the highest since April 7. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.77 (1.88%) to $96.17. Last week, Brent and WTI surged 17% and 13% respectively — the biggest weekly gains since the conflict began.
Over the weekend, hopes for renewed talks faded as US President Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner canceled a planned trip to Islamabad, despite Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arriving there.
"This move returns the initiative to Iran, and time is against it," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
He said Tehran may be forced to cut output at aging fields as storage capacity runs out. Iran has significantly restricted traffic through the strait, and the US has blockaded Iranian ports. According to Kpler data, only one tanker carrying oil products entered the Persian Gulf on Sunday.
Goldman Sachs analysts raised their oil price forecast for the fourth quarter: to $90 a barrel for Brent and $83 for WTI, citing reduced Middle East production.
"Economic risks are higher than our baseline scenario assumed, as oil prices rise, product prices are unusually high, there is a risk of shortages, and the scale of the shock is unprecedented," the bank's analysts wrote in an April 26 note.
The forecast assumes Persian Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz normalize by end-June (instead of mid-May) and a slow recovery of regional production. Goldman Sachs estimates a 14.5 million bpd drop in Middle East oil output will lead to a record draw on global inventories — 11–12 million bpd in April. Analysts expect a shift from a 1.8 million bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 million bpd deficit in Q2 2026.
Meanwhile, global demand is forecast to fall by 1.7 million bpd in Q2 due to rising product prices and by 100,000 bpd on an annual basis in 2026.
